Chủ Nhật, 26 tháng 6, 2011

Geithner Says Taxes on Small Business Must Rise So Government Doesn’t Shrink; Mish's Five Point Alternative Proposal

Sometimes you see a headline so silly you have to wonder if it is really accurate. Please consider this headline of an exchange between first-term Rep. Renee Ellmers (R.-N.C.) and the Secretary of the Treasury: "Geithner: Taxes on Small Business Must Rise So Government Doesn’t Shrink"
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told the House Small Business Committee on Wednesday that the Obama administration believes taxes on small business must increase so the administration does not have to “shrink the overall size of government programs.”

The administration’s plan to raise the tax rate on small businesses is part of its plan to raise taxes on all Americans who make more than $250,000 per year—including businesses that file taxes the same way individuals and families do.

Geithner’s explanation of the administration's small-business tax plan came in an exchange with first-term Rep. Renee Ellmers (R.-N.C.). Ellmers, a nurse, decided to run for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2010 after she became active in the grass-roots opposition to President Barack Obama’s proposed health-care reform plan in 2009.

When Ellmers finally told Geithner that “the point is we need jobs,” he responded that the administration felt it had “no alternative” but to raise taxes on small businesses because otherwise “you have to shrink the overall size of government programs”—including federal education spending.
Mr. Secretary, You are Wrong

Ellmers ended the exchange with this statement "Mr. Secretary I would just like to close by saying, On behalf of the business owners in North Carolina and across the country, you are wrong".



Geithner worries we may have to “shrink the overall size of government programs.”

Good grief. The first and foremost thing this country needs to do is dramatically shrink the overall size of government. The way to do that is easy:

  1. Slash military spending by at least 33%
  2. Cut wages and benefits of government employees
  3. Reduce the number of government jobs
  4. Get rid of needless programs including the department of energy, HUD, FHA, and the department of education
  5. Scrap Davis-Bacon and all prevailing wage laws that drive up expenses for federal, state, and local governments

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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China Rebuilds San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge, Pledges More Support for European Debt, Fuels Latin-America Debt Rally by Financing Ecuador Budget

China has its fingers in nearly every aspect of global financing as the following articles show.

San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge Now Made in China

The New York Times reports Bridge Comes to San Francisco With a Made-in-China Label
At left: The San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge. The replacement eastern span is on the right, with the city of San Francisco beyond. Photo by Jim Wilson/The New York Times

SHANGHAI — Talk about outsourcing.

Next month, the last four of more than two dozen giant steel modules — each with a roadbed segment about half the size of a football field — will be loaded onto a huge ship and transported 6,500 miles to Oakland. There, they will be assembled to fit into the eastern span of the new Bay Bridge.

The project is part of China’s continual move up the global economic value chain — from cheap toys to Apple iPads to commercial jetliners — as it aims to become the world’s civil engineer.

The assembly work in California, and the pouring of the concrete road surface, will be done by Americans. But construction of the bridge decks and the materials that went into them are a Made in China affair. California officials say the state saved hundreds of millions of dollars by turning to China.

“They’ve produced a pretty impressive bridge for us,” Tony Anziano, a program manager at the California Department of Transportation, said a few weeks ago.

On the reputation of showcase projects like Beijing’s Olympic-size airport terminal and the mammoth hydroelectric Three Gorges Dam, Chinese companies have been hired to build copper mines in the Congo, high-speed rail lines in Brazil and huge apartment complexes in Saudi Arabia.

In New York City alone, Chinese companies have won contracts to help renovate the subway system, refurbish the Alexander Hamilton Bridge over the Harlem River and build a new Metro-North train platform near Yankee Stadium. As with the Bay Bridge, American union labor would carry out most of the work done on United States soil.

The new Bay Bridge, expected to open to traffic in 2013, will replace a structure that has never been quite the same since the 1989 Bay Area earthquake. At $7.2 billion, it will be one of the most expensive structures ever built. But California officials estimate that they will save at least $400 million by having so much of the work done in China.
There is much more in the 2-page story including protests by US steelworker unions and charges of poor-quality Chinese steel.

As a testament to the the current sad state of US manufacturing, the project director claims “Most U.S. companies don’t have these types of warehouses, equipment or the cash flow. The Chinese load the ships, and it’s their ships that deliver to our piers.”

China Pledges Continued Support for European Debt

The Wall Street Journal reports China Pledges Continued Support for European Debt
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on Saturday said China will continue to buy euro-denominated bonds to support Europe, in China's latest public endorsement of the efforts to contain a potential debt crisis in the common currency area.

"China has been a heavy investor in the euro sovereign-debt market," Mr. Wen said at a news briefing. "We have bought a lot of euro bonds over the past years and we will continue to support Europe and the euro."

"China is ready to seize the opportunity together with its European partners, tackling challenges and driving development to support the quickest possible recovery of the global economy and stable growth," he said.

Analysts believe about two-thirds of China's reserves is invested in dollar assets, mostly Treasury debt. Chinese officials have said frequently in recent years that they want to diversify their holdings, but there are few other asset classes that can absorb investments on such a huge scale.

In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said China will double its trading volume with the country to US$20 billion by 2015. China will also establish a European logistics and transport hub in Hungary, in line with Hungary's earlier hopes to become a European hub for China as a logistics and commercial distribution center.

"Talks today showed that China indeed would like to transport through that hub," Mr. Orban said.
Debt Rally in Latin America Fueled by China

Bloomberg reports China Lifts Latin America’s Best Debt Funding Ecuador Budget
Ecuador’s bonds are rewarding investors with the best performance in Latin America as Chinese loans and higher oil prices boost confidence in the economy two years after the country defaulted on $3.2 billion in debt.

Ecuadorean dollar debt has returned 13 percent this year, compared with 5.2 percent for Latin American sovereigns on average, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Yields on bonds due 2015 fell 238 basis points, or 2.38 percentage points, this year to 9.59 percent. Similar maturity Brazilian bonds yield 1.9 percent, down 97 basis points from the end of December.

Loans from China that Ecuador says will reach at least $3 billion in 2011 and the government’s forecast for oil revenue to exceed the budgeted amount by $601 million are reassuring investors that South America’s seventh-biggest economy will keep servicing its debt, said Richard Francis, an analyst at Standard & Poor’s in New York. Government investment and consumption are driving the economy’s 12th straight year of expansion, he said.

“China is providing substantial financing that’s letting the government invest a lot more,” Francis said in a telephone interview. “This year and next year there’s no problem.”
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Thứ Bảy, 25 tháng 6, 2011

Public Unions Reject Sweetheart Deal in Connecticut, 7,500 Layoffs Coming Up

I am constantly in awe of the blatant stupidity of rank-and-file public union workers. In Connecticut, AFSCME and other public unions voted down a proposal negotiated over many months that contained a "no layoff" clause for 4 years in return for a pay freeze for 2 years.

That was an amazingly generous offer. The state was silly to offer it. Nonetheless, Union Deal Shot Down; Malloy Pledges To Cut Close To 7,500 State Workers
Gov. Dannel P. Malloy said Friday that he was moving "full steam ahead'' with plans to lay off 7,500 state employees, as leaders of the AFSCME union announced that their members had officially rejected a savings and concession deal that would have given them layoff protection for four years.

The administration has ruled out a renegotiation with the unions because the multi-faceted agreement took months of intense negotiations and compromises to complete. Malloy said he and his budget team intend to release layoff notices "as soon as possible" to balance the budget.

"I have a big job to do, and we're going to do it," Malloy told reporters Friday. "Listen, I don't want to be laying off 7,500 people or more. I think it's bad for the economy. I think it's bad public policy."
Reflections on Good Public Policy

Malloy was elected governor primarily on the back of votes from labor unions. That explains the sweetheart deal offer. Union stupidity explains why the deal was rejected.

A good deal for taxpayers in Connecticut would be to get rid of unions, not guarantee no layoffs for 4 years.

Malloy says "Listen, I don't want to be laying off 7,500 people or more. I think it's bad for the economy. I think it's bad public policy."

Mish says laying off 7,500 public union workers is good public policy and good for the economy. Indeed, firing 100% of them would be the ultimate in good public policy.

There is not a damn thing that public unions workers can do cheaper or better than private industry. Taxpayers foot the bill for the difference.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Biggest Banks Must Hold 2.5 Percentage Points More Capital in Basel Accord; Many banks “Vigorously Lobby” Against Branding as Systemically Important

The first big dream of every bank is to become too-big-to-fail. The second big dream is to avoid capital constraints that now go along with that designation.

Please consider Biggest Banks Must Hold 2.5 Percentage Points More Capital in Basel Accord
Global regulators said banks deemed too big to fail must hold as much as 2.5 percentage points in additional capital as part of efforts to prevent another financial crisis.

The additional capital buffers will range from 1 percentage point to 2.5 percentage points, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision said in a statement today. From 28 to 30 banks, including as many as eight in the U.S., may face surcharges, according to a person familiar with the discussions, who declined to be identified because the negotiations are private.

Many banks are “vigorously lobbying” against being branded as systemically important, Sheila Bair, chairman of the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. told U.S. lawmakers on June 22.

The Basel committee has said internationally active banks should hold core Tier 1 Capital of 7 percent of their risk- weighted assets, and the additional requirements are for banks it considers systemically important financial institutions, or those whose collapse would harm the global economy.
‘Denying Credit’

The extra fee must be met by banks building up their core reserves, and not by issuing so-called contingent capital instruments such as CoCo bonds, the committee said today.

“You are looking at a situation here where the capital requirements for the biggest banks have gone from as low as 2 percent before the crisis now to well north of 10 percent,” said Karen Shaw Petrou, managing partner of Washington-based Federal Financial Analytics Inc., a bank consulting firm. “It means the banks are going to have to constrain activities both by reducing risk and denying credit.”

The Basel group said banks should have to meet the extra requirement using common equity, a measure of their core reserves which is made up mainly of ordinary shares and retained earnings. So-called contingent convertible bonds, or CoCos, which convert into ordinary shares when a bank’s reserves fall below a certain level, won’t be eligible, the committee said, adding that national regulators are free to include them in any separate requirements they impose.

The Basel committee will release more details on the capital buffers “around the end of July,” the group said in its statement. That document won’t name banks that could face a surcharge, said a person familiar with the discussions.

While the largest surcharge that banks will initially face will be 2.5 percentage points, this number would rise to 3.5 percentage points if lenders facing the highest buffers increase in size, the Basel committee said. The 3.5 percentage point fee would act as a “disincentive for banks facing the highest charge to increase materially their global systemic importance,” it said.

Banks’ systemic importance will be assessed by measuring their size, interconnectedness with other financial institutions, the difficulty for another institution to take over the role they play in the market, complexity and global activity, the Basel group said.

The new requirements will be introduced with other measures from Jan. 1, 2016, through Jan. 1, 2019.
Banks Already Capital Constrained

Banks are already capital constrained. That is the primary reason they are not lending. Nonetheless, this is a small but important step in the right direction, assuming it sticks.

Too-big-to-fail is the same thing as too-big. Moreover, banks should be banks, not trading vehicles.

Bank of America has billions of dollars worth of exposure writing credit default swaps on Greek debt. That trade was a big winner in 2010, but seems to be blowing up in Bank of America's face right now.

Please see Emergency Session Fails; Market Calls Trichet's Bluff; French Banks Under Downgrade Review; ECB Divorced From Reality; What is US Exposure to EU Mess? for details.

Writing credit default swaps may or may not be lucrative, but banks have no business doing it.

Bank of America and Citigroup should be busted apart. Goldman Sachs should not be a bank or a bank holding company at all. So why is Goldman a bank holding company? Because it suits the Fed's manipulative purposes, that's why.

Of course, the proper thing to do is kill fractional reserve banking totally, but any steps in that direction are welcome.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Expect Chaos

I remain amused by the complete silliness of statements coming from ECB officials. At best ECB proclamations are laughable, at worst they are completely counterproductive.

With that introduction, please consider ECB's Mersch says Greek default would bring "chaos"
European Central Bank Governing Council member Yves Mersch said on Saturday a Greek sovereign debt default would lead to chaos, adding it was up to the parliament to deliver on its austerity promises.

Banks and policymakers moved closer to a deal on Friday to help Athens secure funds ahead of a parliamentary vote on austerity next week that Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou must win to avert default.

If the vote next week is lost, international lenders are unlikely to release a 12 billion euros funding tranche, meaning the government will run out of cash within days.

"Now it's up to the Greek parliament. I observe," he told reporters on the sidelines of the Bank for International Settlements annual meeting in Basel.

"The next step will be to observe whether there will be delivery."

When he asked about what would happen if Greece defaulted, Mersch said: "Chaos."
Greece Default Irrelevant

Here is a succinct summation of the current state of Euro-Zone affairs.

  1. Greece will default, but at this point it is irrelevant.
  2. The situation in Spain, Ireland, Portugal, and Italy is now so dire that it is does not matter whether or not Greece defaults.
  3. Expect chaos


Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Thứ Sáu, 24 tháng 6, 2011

Interactive Map: Job Gains and Losses in the "Recovery" by Job Type (Healthcare, Education, Mining, Construction, Finance, Real Estate, etc)

This is the second part of a two-part interactive map series on jobs. For part one, please see Interactive Map: Employment History Since 2001 by Job Type (Healthcare, Education, Mining, Construction, Finance, Real Estate, etc)

Part two has a focus on job creation and losses during the economic recovery. Please consider the following interactive map, using Tableau Software, with data courtesy of Economic Modeling Specialists.

This interactive map may take a bit to load. Please give it time on a slow connection.



Note on Economic Modeling Data
“Our data is used by many to research and understand regional employment trends and dynamics. It’s composed of comprehensive information on industries, occupations, demographics — as well as things like occupational skills, education, training, and even the names and size of companies in your region broken down by industry.

To do this we link nearly 90 data sources — from federal sources like the Bureau of Labor Statistics to state and private sources.

If you’ve ever worked with this sort of information, you know it can be hard to collect and present. It’s also often incomplete and outdated. So we organize the data, bring it up to date, and build software and reports around it so you can put it to use more quickly and effectively”

Jobs Gained or Lost Since Dec 31, 2007
Industry2008200920102011
Health Care461,860792,6791,023,9071,278,794
Finance & Insurance323,802629,082490,384444,530
Mining & Oil195,813345,116337,917422,752
Educational Services121,337195,899236,766295,498
Government358,591451,680398,85390,393
Arts & Entertainment92,418108,26377,18165,855
Management60,98525,37116,32326,615
Utilities13,01920,77313,77111,275
Professional203,493-107,607-164,853-39,124
Agriculture & Forestry-18,909-26,033-33,643-71,928
Other Services-30,456-221,109-246,875-82,177
Food & Lodging71,681-242,538-273,658-145,099
Information-30,863-203,185-299,866-331,269
Real Estate-76,068-232,452-335,391-359,874
Transportation-107,538-501,697-559,415-486,346
Admin & Support-389,951-1,226,173-1,097,484-774,404
Retail & Wholesale-428,934-1,759,253-1,977,146-1,854,109
Manufacturing-478,023-2,072,959-2,415,322-2,290,390
Construction-612,184-1,955,402-2,468,184-2,519,538
Totals-269,927-5,979,545-7,276,735-6,318,546


Jobs Gained or Lost vs. Year Ago
Industry2008200920102011
Totals-269,927-5,709,618-1,297,190958,189
Admin & Support-389,951-836,222128,689323,080
Health Care461,860330,819231,228254,887
Other Services-30,456-190,653-25,766164,698
Food & Lodging71,681-314,219-31,120128,559
Professional203,493-311,100-57,246125,729
Manufacturing-478,023-1,594,936-342,363124,932
Retail & Wholesale-428,934-1,330,319-217,893123,037
Mining & Oil195,813149,303-7,19984,835
Transportation-107,538-394,159-57,71873,069
Educational Services121,33774,56240,86758,732
Management60,985-35,614-9,04810,292
Utilities13,0197,754-7,002-2,496
Arts & Entertainment92,41815,845-31,082-11,326
Real Estate-76,068-156,384-102,939-24,483
Information-30,863-172,322-96,681-31,403
Agriculture & Forestry-18,909-7,124-7,610-38,285
Finance & Insurance323,802305,280-138,698-45,854
Construction-612,184-1,343,218-512,782-51,354
Government358,59193,089-52,827-308,460

Job Table Notes

  • Data is as of May 31, 2011
  • 2011 comparison is to December 31, 2010
  • Job gains in 2011 are higher than reported by the BLS. I see no reason to believe the BLS.
  • Since December 2007, the economy has lost 6,318,546 jobs
  • In 2011, the big job gainer is not healthcare but "administration"
  • Healthcare and Education are the two bright spots throughout the recession.

The 6.3 million jobs lost since the beginning of 2008 is deceptively low. The Economy should have been gaining 1.8 milling jobs a year, not losing jobs. In other words, the economy is down 10 to 12 million jobs from where it should be.

Thanks to Ross Perez at Tableau Software and also to Economic Modeling Specialists for this post.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Italian Bank Stocks Plunge, Trading Suspended; Juncker Principle in Action

Italy, the big elephant in the room that the EU does not even see yet, may be waking up. Please consider, Italian Banks Plunge on Debt Concern
Italian banks slumped in Milan trading amid concern the European debt crisis may spread just as lenders face scrutiny from regulators over capital levels.

UniCredit SpA (UCG), Italy’s biggest bank, and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP), the second-largest, led lenders lower, tumbling as much as 8.9 percent and 7.2 percent respectively. Both stocks were briefly suspended after breaching limits on intraday swings. Italian 10-year bonds fell, increasing the additional yield investors demand to hold the securities instead of benchmark German bunds to the most since the euro was introduced in 1999.

“Contagion fears keep re-emerging as long as credible, lasting solutions in Greece are pending,” said Christian Weber, a Munich-based strategist at UniCredit.

Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said today the country’s banks are “well capitalized.” Speaking at a summit of European leaders in Brussels, Berlusconi said he wasn’t worried about Moody’s comments about the country’s banks.

The European Banking Authority yesterday updated its stress tests to take into account extra trading losses that banks may face on their holdings of sovereign debt from crisis-hit European Union countries including Greece.

Italian banks are also seeking to raise money from investors to bolster capital. Unione di Banche Italiane ScpA (UBI), Italy’s fourth-biggest bank, fell as much as 5 percent to 3.628 euros. The lender may struggle to lure buyers to its 1 billion- euro ($1.4 billion) rights offering, which closes today. The bank is offering investors eight new shares at 3.808 euros for every 21 held.
Juncker Principle in Action

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi appears to be following the "Juncker Principle".

Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg PM and Head Euro-Zone Finance Minister says "When it becomes serious, you have to lie".

Italian banks are in a scramble to raise capital even though the prime minister assures us that its banks are “well capitalized.”

Actions speak louder than lies.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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